Issue: Will 2008 presidential campaigns waste millions on strike-crippled network television?
Commentary by: David Vinjamuri

As the Hollywood writer’s strike spins through the holiday season into 2008, the distinct possibility of a perfect storm for advertising in the 2008 US Presidential campaign season looms.  Could the combination of the strike with lavish television  advertising spending on the race waste millions in donated money?

If it lasts any longer, the Hollywood writer’s strike will have two significant victims: the fall TV lineup, and the presidential campaigns which already upend conventional advertising wisdom every four years with absurdly over-saturated media plans.  This all comes at a time when television advertising is already a dubious proposition: primetime television reached just half the households last year as it did in 1994, even though the U.S. has added 40 million residents.  In the same period, primetime CPM (the cost to reach 1000 prime time viewers) has spiked from $7.64 to over $20.

The effect of the Hollywood writer’s strike thus far has been modest, evidenced mostly from the emergence of questionable reality tv pilots and gameshows onto the prime time schedule (Battle of the Choirs, anyone?)  But the strike is already threatening the traditional winter/spring pilot season, when networks invest in producing test episodes for a host of potential new shows for the fall.  Even if this archaic system is restructured, a strike lasting into the Spring would wreak havoc on the fall television lineup.

Add to this the enormous and distorting effect of presidential campaign television spending.  The Wall Street Journal estimates that “candidates, political parties and issues groups are expected to spend $3 billion this election cycle.”  Most of this will be spent on television.  These will mostly be spot purchases in local markets, but they will have a tremendously distorting effect on an industry much in need of reform.  And television depends on high-visibility content from primetime to drive overall viewership.

So the likely result may be this: billions of dollars will be spent on clumsy, unsubtle television advertising.  In order to reach the least frequent television viewers, candidates and other political ad buyers will scrap conventional wisdom on ad wear out rates (how many times a person can see the same ad before it starts to wear out and have the opposite effect intended) and oversaturate the medium.

The shame of all of this is that campaigns seem to be ignoring a huge opportunity with new media.  There are more people than ever watching video on the web.  A number of advertisers, from Smirnoff Raw Tea to Brawny have demonstrated the ability to create appealing branded entertainment with video on the web.  And if the Hollywood writers strike continues, the audience for this type of programming may skyrocket.  In addition, there are a large number of talented writers currently idle, unable to work for studios or production companies, who could still be engaged directly by advertisers.  In spite of this, web campaign spending is below relative viewership rates of television to the Internet.  Ironically, politicians may be the ones getting sold a bill of goods in this election season.

Brand: OfficeMax
Execution: Online, Viral
Target: Bored White Collar Workers
Rating: ****
Reviewer: David Vinjamuri

Description:
A viral campaign in its second year, Elf Yourself from OfficeMax allows users to upload photos of friends and loved ones, crop them and then watch the results in a fun animation.

What Works:
One of the most successful viral campaigns in recent memory, Elf Yourself has reached Good Morning America as well as households across the nation.  From a execution standpoint, Elf Yourself works because it allow users to become part of the promotion and because the details work:  it’s easy to use and the results are extremely amusing.  The campaign does not work hard to be promotional, but does give some equity back to the OfficeMax brand.  The first year of the campaign generated over 36 million visits and this year promises to be stronger.

What Doesn’t:
The linkage to the OfficeMax brand is weak – because the elves really have nothing to do with OfficeMax.  In fact, Elf Yourself could have been created by virtually any brand.  On the other hand, this advertising blog finds it hard to imagine how an execution as clever as this could be tied more directly to the OfficeMax brand.

Branding Bottom Line:
Elf Yourself is fantastic – who did that again?

Issue: Does a funky new website point to the future of journalism?
Commentary by: David Vinjamuri

There’s something new, and distinctly odd, out there on the frontiers of the Internet.  The site Truemors aims to empower ordinary citizens to spread, well, rumor.  Ideally those that are true.  Anyone can contribute, and the rules are simple – write stuff that is actually true and don’t break the law.  The result is a very eclectic stream of information which users can rate, and thus sort.  What rises to the top is the stuff the most people believe – or like.

Whether Truemors will prosper remains to be seen. But the central idea behind it – that citizens can report information directly on a joint forum – is an intriguing step forward.  The success of blogs has proven that credible reporting need not come from the most established sources.  Even mainstream media like CNN and Fox have solicited and run video taken by eyewitnesses.  Truemors tries to take the process a step further, shoving the microphone directly into the hands of the average joe.
Part of the concept has already been proven.  Perhaps one of the most important developments on the Internet has been the rise of social bookmarking with sites like Digg, Del.icio.us, and Stumble Upon.  These sites allow ordinary people to organize the Internet by explicitly selecting and tagging sites they deem worthy.  It is a much stronger approach than Google search for finding contextual information when it works, and it is one of the core ideas behind the Web 2.0 concept.

Truemors, founded by entrepreneurial guru Guy Kawasaki (The Art of the Start)  along with Will Mayall and Kathryn Henkens faces a high hurdle (and indeed some initial skepticism from luminaries like Seth Godin).  The result of putting publishing power into the hands of absolutely everyone is chaotic (a recent scan of the homepage contrasted stories on Dora the Explorer and the Liberty bell with an expose on a couple charged in an identity theft case.

Beyond the marketing question of whether Truemors will catch on is the bigger question of whether unmoderated citizen journalism will degenerate into gossip and innuendo or whether a Wikipedia-like effect will raise the level of contributions.  Voting on posts creates a ‘greatest’ list which is placed above the running list of posts.  But ‘greatest’ may be more like ‘best of craigslist’ than a highly combed-over Wikipedia entry: it may be more about entertainment value than accuracy.

In truth, Truemors may have just reinvented the oldest network of all – the ancient marketplace where news, gossip, rumor and innuendo walked hand in hand.